War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".