A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
